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Last
Update, 2005/03/21 at 7.40pm
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Wednesday
April 06th
17.00 - 19.00 : Registration
and Welcome drink
Overview
of the Scientific Program
Thurdsay
April 07th
08.30 - 09.00 : Registration and Coffee
09.00
- 10.00: Opening Session
Chair
: ………Pavlos KARADELOGLOU
[AEA & BCE] et Virginie TERRAZA
[AEA & U. Luxembourg]
|
Welcome Speech
Rolf TARRACH
Recteur de l'Université du
Luxembourg
Keynote
Michel
WURTH
Chief Financial
Officer of Arcelor
Exchange Rate Movements and Multinational
Companies
A Steel Producer's Position
Opening
|
10.00
- 10.30 : Coffee & Session A
Session
A : Poster Presentation during
all Breaks
Chair
: ………Virginie TERRAZA
[AEA & U. Luxembourg]
|
Antonucci
Daniele, Centro Studi Confindustria
(IT)
Structural Changes and Deviations from the Purchasing Power Parity within the Euro Area
Boudhina
Riadh, Khallouli
Wajih, Univ. El Mannouba
(TN)
Modèles à correction
d'erreur (ECM) non linéaire
: Application sur la contagion des
marchés de change asiatiques
Essaadi
Essahbi, Ayadi Mohamed, ISG Tunis
(TN)
Amélioration des prévisions
des taux de change par les études
de sous période
Grainville
Philippe, Univ. Nice (FR)
Une analyse économétrique
de l'impact du taux de change sur
les prix des biens primaires
Komarek
Lubos, Czech National Bank
(CZ)
The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment
of the Five Central European Countries
– Single Equation Approach
Marrakchi-Charfi
Fatma, Fac. Scs Eco. de Tunis
(TN)
Forecasting and Comparison of
Tunisian Dinar Parity Using a Constant
Real Exchange Rate Rule and a Fundamantal
Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model.
Matei
Iuliana, Univ. Paris 1 (FR)
Pegging The Currencies To The
euro: An Empirical Investigation
Melecky
Martin, Univ. New South Wales
(AU)
Third-Currency Effects in a Tripolar
Model of Foreing Exchange
Prieto
Flora, FP Inversiones Planificacion
Research (ES)
Is There an ‘Internationalization
Effect’ on Exchange Rates?
Ramachandran
Muthiah, ISEC (IN)
High Capital Mobility and Precautionary
Demand for International Reserves.
Šverko
Ivan, Ivica Prga, Erste & Sterimarkische
Bank (ZA)
Croatian Exchange Rate Regime
Looking Forward EMU?
Temimi
Bayram, ISG Tunis (TN)
Perspectives d'émergence d'un
bloc Euro : Analyse par modèles
dynamiques
Touil
Ahmed, Univ. Tlemcen (AL)
Pertinence du taux de change d'une
monnaie inconvertible
Van
Aarle Bas, Harry Garretsen, Florence
Huart, Univ. Leuven (BE)
Policy Rules in the Euro-Area
and International Interdependencies |
10.30
- 12.00 - B : Exchange Rate Pass Through
Chair
: ………Paolo GUARDA [Central
Bank of Luxembourg]
|
Albuquerque
Christianne, Marcelo S. Portugal,
Banco Central do Brazil (BR)
Pass-Through from Exchange Rate
to Prices in Brazil, an Analysis Using
Time-Varying Parameters for the 1980-2002
Period
Dobrynskaya
Victoria V., Levando D.V., State
Univ. (RU)
Exchange Rate Pass-Through Effect
and Monetary Policy in Russia
Portugal
Duarte António Manuel, Univ.
Coimbra (PT)
The Portuguese Disinflation Process
Analysis of Some Costs and Benefits
Razgallah
Brahim, Univ. Paris 2 (FR)
Trends in Real Exchange Rates
and the Relative Price of Traded Goods:
An Empirical Investigation
Sadler
Armand Arcelor; Terraza Virginie,
Univ. Luxembourg (LU)
Exchange Rates and the Steel
Market
Várpalotai
Viktor, National Bank of Hungary
(HU)
Disaggregated Cost Pass-Through
Based Econometric Inflation-Forecasting
Model for Hungary
|
12.00
– 13.00 : Lunch & Poster Session
A
13.00
- 14.30 - C : Purchasing Power Parity
Chair : ………Zolt
DARVAS [Central Bank of Hungary]
|
Borsic
Darja, Univ. of Maribor
(SI)
Prices and Exchange Rates in New
Members of EU
Cerrato
Mario, Neil Kellard, Nicholas Sarantis,
London Metropolitan Univ. (UK)
The Purchasing Power Parity Paradigm:
Evidence from Black Currency Markets
Hachicha
Nejib, Fac. Scs Eco. de Tunis
(TN)
The Purchasing Power Parity and
the Symmetry, Proportionality Conditions:
Panel Cointegration Evidence from
African Countries
Lopez
Claude, Univ. of Cincinnati
(US)
Evidence of Purchasing Power Parity
for the Floating Regime Period
Lommatzsch
Kirsten, Silke Tober, Deutsche
Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
(DE)
Productivity Growth and the Real
Appreciation of the Accession Countries'
Currencies
Mannai
Rania, ESSEC de Tunis (TN)
Dynamique du taux de change et
des prix relatifs dans le cadre d'un
modèle à tendances communes
|
14.30
- 15.00 - Coffee & Poster Session A
15.00
- 16.30 - D : Exchange Rate Regimes
Chair
: ………Giovanna PALADINO [LUISS
University & SanPaoloIMI]
|
Egert
Balazs , Univ. Paris 10 (FR)
Daily Foreign Exchange Interventions
in Emerging Europe: Should We Give
a Damn?
Komarek
Lubos,Czech National Bank
(CZ)
Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate
for the New EU-Member States –
Panel Data Approach
Naszódi
Anna, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (HU)
Target Zone Rearrangements And
Exchange Rate Behaviour In An Options-Based
Model
Payaslioglu
Cem, Eastern Mediterranean Univ.
(TR)
A Tail Index Tour Across Foreing
Exchange Regimes in Turkey
Setzer
Ralph, Univ. Hohenheim (DE)
The Political Economy of Exchange
Rate Regime Duration: A Survival Analysis
Tavares
José, José Lopes, Univ.
Nova de Lisboa (PT)
Trade Areas versus Currency Agreements
|
16.30
- 17.00 - Coffee & Poster Session A
17.00
- 18.30 - E : Exchange Rate Volatility
Chair
: ………Frédéric
FLAMENT [Dexia Luxembourg]
|
Beine
Michel, Univ. Lille & ULB
(BE)
The Impact of Central Bank FX
Interventions on Currency Components
Boubaker
Heni, El meddeb Zahra, Belkacem Lotfi,
IHEC de Sousse (FR)
Cointégration fractionnaire
et efficience informationnelle du
Marché des Changes
Davradakis
Emmanuel, Warwick Univ. (UK)
Macroeconomic Fundamentals and
Exchange Rates: A Non-Parametric Cointegration
Analysis
Louargant
Christine, Univ. Metz, Luc
Neuberg, Fortis Investments,
Philippe Protinn Univ. of Grenoble
II (FR)
Agents Based Model Applied to
Exchange Rate Dynamics
Lumengo
Bonga-Bonga, Rand Afrikaans Univ.
(ZA)
Modeling the Rand-Dollar Future
Spot Rates: The Kalman Filter Approach.
Tivegna
Massimo, Luiss Roma Univ. (IT)
Day-Trading the Euro-Dollar With
a News-Based Model of Exchange Rates:
Descriptive Results
|
19.00
: Reception
A bus is previous to bring participants to the reception.
Departure from the university 18h45: to the station via aldringen hamilius (at the middle town) and via la "place de Paris" to bring the participants to their hostels
The bus start again at 19h30 from the station via aldringen hamilius and via la "place de Paris" to bring the participants to cercle Munster.
20.00
: Official Dinner
Friday
April 08th
09.00
– 10.00 : Keynote Speech
Chair : ………Sanvi
AVOUYI DOVI [AEA & BdF] & Armand
SADLER [Arcelor]
10.00
- 10.30 - Coffee & Poster Session F
Session
F : Poster Presentation during
all Breaks
Chair
: ………Pavlos
KARADELOGLOU [AEA & BCE]
|
Bauer
Christian, Univ. Bayreuth (DE)
A Better Asymmetric Model of Changing
Volatility in Stock Returns: Trend-GARCH
Benczur
Peter, National Bank of Hungary
(HU)
Bond Spreads, Exchange Rate Movements
and Risks
Bensafta
Malik Kamel, Univ. Hassiba Ben
Bouali (AL)
Analyse univariée et multivariée
de la volatilité du taux de
change du Dinar Algériens,
au moyen des modèles de type
GARCH univariée et multivariée,
Gaussiens et Non Gaussiens
Dropsy
Vincent, California State Univ.
(US)
Currency Overvaluation and External
Debt Unssustainability
Grimaldi
Silvia, Banca Intesa
(IT)
The Evolution of Italian Stock
Market in the Last Decay
Johnson
Christian, Univ. Adolfo Ibañez
(CL)
A Neural Network Model to Forecast
Exchange Rate
Kabundi
Alain, Edmund Mwale, Standard Bank
(ZA)
Tracking South African All-Share
Index Using Exchange Rates: a Kalman
Filter Approach
Kamar
Bassem, Univ. Monaco (MC)
Real Exchange Rate Determinants
in Egypt : a Var Cointegration Approach
Kanas
Angelos, Christos Ioannidis, Univ. Crete (GR)
Revisiting The Spot - Forward
Relationship :a Non Parametric Approach
Khallouli
Wajih, Essahbi Essaadi, Univ. Tunis
(TN)
La contagion de la crise asiatique
: Analyse par l'approche de corrélation
Knedlik
Tobias, Bremen Univ. ( DE)
Estimating the Monetary Conditions
Index for South Africa
Lukas
Menkhoff, Alexander Mende, Univ.
of Hannover, Carol L. Osler, Brandeis
Univ. (US)
Asymmetric Information and the
Cross-Section of Currency Spreads
Payaslioglu
Tuna Gulcay, Eastern Mediterranean
Univ. (TR)
The Effectiveness of Central Bank
Intervention on Exchange Rate Volatility:Evidence
from Turkey
|
10.30
- 12.00 - G : Macroeconomics Impacts of
Exchange Rate
Chair
: ………Yves
WAGNER [Director's Office Luxembourg]
|
Bergman
Michael, Kon S. Lai, Univ. Copenhagen,
Yin Wong Cheung, Univ. of California
(DK)
The Common-Trend and Transitory
Dynamics in Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations
De Walque
Grégory, Raf Wouters, National
Bank of Belgium (BE)
An Open Economy DSGE Model Linking
the Euro Area and the US Economy
Anil
Akçaglayan, Univ. Ankara,
Ertugrul Ayse, Univ. Paris
1 (FR)
Monetary Policy and the Exchange
Rate: a VAR Analysis
Federici
Daniela, Sergio Santoroz, Univ. of
Rome La Sapienza (IT)
Monetary Shocks and Real Exchange
Rate Dynamics
Hee Sik
Kim, Central Bank (KR)
Structural Change in the Effects
of Exchange Rate on Output in Korea
Lindblad
Hans, Peter Sellin, Sveriges Riksdag
(SE)
A Simultaneous Model of the Swedish
Krona, the US Dollar and the Euro
|
12.00 – 13.00
: Lunch & Poster Session F
13.00 - 14.30 - H : Short
Term Analysis of Exchange Rate
Chair
: ………Jean-François
FORTEMPS [Fortis Investments]
|
Darvas
Zsolt, Corvinus Univ. , Gábor
Rappai, Zoltán Schepp, Univ.
of Pécs (HU)
Uncovering Yield Parity
Karadi
Peter, Central Bank of Hungary
(HU)
Implicit Exchange Rate Target
An Application to Hungary
John
A. Carlson, Purdue Univ. ,
Osler Carol, Brandeis Int.Business
(US)
Currency Risk Premiums: Theory
and Evidence
Ruth
Karsten, Dieter Nautz, Goethe-Univ.
(DE)
Monetary Disequilibria and the
Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate
Eric
Nowell, Liverpool Univ. ,Sofat
Prakriti, Patrick Minford, Cardiff
Univ. (UK)
Real Exchange Rate Overshooting
RBC Style
Tarashev
Nikola, Bank for International
Settlements (CH)
Are Speculative Attacks Triggered
by Sunspots? A New Test
|
14.30
- 15.00 - Coffee & Poster Session F
15.00
- 17.00 - I : Fundamentals
and Exchange Rate
Chair
: ………Michel
BEINE [ULB & Lille U.]
|
Akram
Q. Farooq, Central Bank of Norway
(NO)
Oil wealth and Real Exchange Rates:
The FEER for Norway
Coudert
Virginie, Bank of France &
CEPII (FR)
Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate
in China
Dropsy
Vincent, California State Univ.
(USA)
Real Exchange Rate Valuation in
China
Fidrmuc
Jarko, Jesús Crespo-CuaresmaI,
Maria Antoinette Silgoner, Oesterreichische
Nationalbank (AT)
Fundamentals, the Exchange Rate
and the next EU Enlargement Rounds
- Evidence from Bulgaria, Croatia,
Romania and Turkey
Guati
Rizlane, ENS-Lyon (FR)
Estimation des comptes courants
et des taux de change d'équilibre
fondamentaux: une approche basée
sur les données de panel
Karfakis
Costas, Univ. Macedonia
(GR)
Is There an Empirical Link between
the Dollar Price of the Euro and the
Monetary Fundamentals?
Rubaseck
Michael, National Bank of Poland
(PL)
The Optimal ERM II Central Parity
for the Polish Zloty.
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